Unsettled Friday, Better Weekend

NAM Forecast 2 PM Friday

NAM Forecast 2 PM Friday

Moisture levels continue to increase into Friday.  Tonight will have a muggy feel with a couple showers around, along with some areas of drizzle & fog.  Low temperatures remain in the 60′s.  An approaching warm front will produce some showers at times here Friday, with the chance for a heavier downpour or thundershower.  Highs will be in the low-mid 70′s.  Some showers and possible thunder will continue into the first half of Friday night.  There could be some lingering clouds early Saturday, however we’ll see developing sunshine and decreasing humidity during the day.  Highs will be in the upper 70′s-low 80′s. Father’s Day looks great!  Sunny & warm but not humid.  Highs in the 80′s, cooler beaches.

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Nice Weekend Ahead – A Summer Preview

A surface high and ridge aloft will build in this weekend.

A surface high and ridge aloft will build in this weekend.

Summer doesn’t officially begin for a couple weeks, however a high pressure ridge moving in this weekend should bring us a nice preview.  Tonight looks partly cloudy to mostly clear with lows in the 50′s.  Mostly sunny Saturday (a few clouds mixing in).  Highs in the low-mid 80′s.  The pressure gradient will be weak enough to allow a seabreeze to develop along the shore during the afternoon & evening, keeping things cooler there.   Pleasant Saturday night – clear, with lows in the 50′s to around 60.  Sunny & warm Sunday with highs in the 80′s, cooler shore.  The L.I. Sound water temperature is 60-61 degrees.

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Unsettled Tonight

Radar 3:42 P.M.

Radar 3:42 P.M.

There is a lot of precipitable water available to be squeezed out of the atmosphere by a trough now in eastern NY.  This means t-storms that form will have the potential to produce pretty heavy rain and in some cases, localized flooding.  The line of storms will likely weaken some (though not fall apart completely) as it moves into southern New England this evening & tonight.

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Feels Nice. Looks Angry.

NAM Jet Stream Forecast 5 P.M. EDT Today

NAM Jet Stream Forecast 5 P.M. EDT Today

So far it’s been a fairly nice day across the region, however you may have noticed some rather angry looking parts of the sky.  A combination of jet stream (pictured left) energy, a mid-level disturbance, and a cold front are dropping down from the northwest in our direction.  This will likely result in some scattered, but locally heavy showers and thunderstorms from the late afternoon into the first half of tonight.  The main threat from some of these thunderstorms will be strong, gusty winds and small hail.  It should be fairly quiet during the predawn hours, however at least parts of the area will probably see a shower Saturday morning.  Saturday afternoon and Sunday look nice and sunny.  Highs across most of CT Saturday will be between 66-71, lows 38-48 Saturday night, and highs Sunday 75-80!

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100 MPH Winds

Doppler Radar Velocity Product from 6:55 P.M. Tuesday evening showing some rotation aloft when the storm was near Rt. 202 in New Milford

Doppler Radar Velocity Product from 6:55 P.M. Tuesday evening showing some rotation aloft when the storm was near Rt. 202 in New Milford

After investigating the damage yesterday in New Milford and Southbury, CT produced by Tuesday evening’s storms, The National Weather Service has determined that it was caused by straight-line (not tornadic) winds that gusted up to 100 mph.  Here are the  statements from the Albany and New York NWS offices.

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Storm Damage

7:12 P.M. EDT

7:12 P.M. EDT

The thunderstorm that moved across southwestern Litchfield County this evening produced downed trees & wires resulting in power outages.  As of 8:15 P.M. 41% of Roxbury, 44% of New Milford,  81% of Washington, and 100% of Bridgewater customers had no power.

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Turning Much Cooler………

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Today

SPC Severe Weather Outlook Today

The Storm Prediction Center has western portions of our region in the “slight risk” category for severe thunderstorms into this evening (yellow shading left). A slight risk from the SPC translates to what is really more of a moderate risk for our part of the country. I expect some scattered, but locally heavy storms this evening into early tonight. Later tonight and Wednesday it will be much cooler.  Lows will drop into the 50′s tonight and highs will only reach 55-60 Wednesday under a cloudy sky with a couple showers around.

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Strong Ocean Storm = A Windy Wednesday

RPM Model Forecast Snowfall Through 8 PM Wednesday

RPM Model Forecast Snowfall Through 8 PM Wednesday

For most of us the biggest effect from the ocean storm tonight & Wednesday will be strong, gusty winds Wednesday. A touch of light snow or flurries tonight – especially after midnight. Accumulations will range from nothing to less than an inch through most of CT, southeastern NY, NY City, and southern New England west of a Boston/Providence line. Boston and Long Island get a coating to an inch, Providence could see an inch or two. Cape Cod’s looking at 5″-10″, with wind gust over 60 mph Wednesday. The rest of the region will also have strong, gusty winds Wednesday. Some of the gusts could hit 40-50 mph! This will generate wind chills in the 20′s Wednesday and single numbers Wednesday night. Top wind speeds should start decreasing during Wednesday night – especially late.

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Don’t Be Fooled

Mark TwainHow can you sort through all the noise, hype, rumor, and innuendo when you need reliable weather information?  I like Anthony Siciliano‘s advice last month during this Twitter conversation about the topic:

Twitter

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Good advice.  And applicable not only to weather information, but life in general.  If you choose a few meteorologists that you trust and compare their opinions/forecasts for the Lincolntime period you are interested in, you can ignore the noise and rumors.  If they are saying similar things and sound like they agree with each other it may be an indication that there is an average or high level of confidence in the forecast.  If they have differences of opinion or are talking about alternate possibilities a lot, it may be indicative that forecast confidence is low.  If they are not talking about the next big storm you are hearing rumors about, forecast confidence is probably too low for them to be discussing it yet.

Speaking of trustworthy meteorologists, Ryan Hanrahan has an excellent post on his blog related to this topic titled “Anatomy of a Pseudo-Bust” that you should read.

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Still Trending South…….

GFS model forecast for 7 AM EST Monday

GFS model forecast for 7 AM EST Monday

The track of tonight’s system has continued to trend south in the modeling.  The system is going to be shoved to the south by an arctic air mass, so expect temps to be well below average Monday through Wednesday, with some moderation during the 2nd half of the week.   Looks like just a dusting-2″ of snow for the region tonight/early Monday, with the higher amounts confined to Long Island/NYC, and possibly parts of the south coast of southern New England.  Many areas north of I-84 probably end up with just flurries or nothing at all, depending how far north you are.  Should be over (where it actually snows) in most places by 7 AM or so Monday, but could still be snowing a bit on parts of Long Island and coastal RI until 8-9 AM and even a bit later than that on Cape Cod.

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