ECMWF Forecast 7 AM EST Thursday

The breeze will hold up to some extent tonight, making for a rather cold night with lows in the low-mid 20′s under a partly cloudy sky.  Tuesday will be a bit more comfortable, with less wind and highs in the low-mid 40′s under a mix of sun & clouds.

A storm system will move off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday.  It looks like our region will be on the outer fringe of this system.  I expect some flurries/light snow/light rain at times Wednesday – especially in the afternoon.  It will also become windy Wednesday.  Highs will be in the 40-45 degree range.  It appears that fringe effects will continue into Thursday and even Friday, as the system slowly moves out to our southeast.  This will keep some areas of light snow and rain going at times both days and some light snow and snow showers Thursday night.  I’m looking at highs between 38-43 both Thursday & Friday, so I wouldn’t expect a lot of the snow that does fall to stick, however I wouldn’t be surprised to see a coating to an inch or so Thursday night.  Obviously, being on the edge of the system like this, a slight jog in the forecast track could change this forecast.

RPM Snow Accumulation Forecast Through 7 PM EST Wednesday

The low pressure area that has brought big snow to parts of the central U.S. is centered over southern IL this afternoon.  A smaller, secondary low will try to get going over the Carolinas today, and head our way tonight and Wednesday.   We can expect some wet snow, rain, and in a few spots maybe a bit of sleet tonight.  The precipitation will most likely arrive after 10 or 11 PM.  Low temperatures will be in the low-mid 30′s.  There may be a small accumulation of wet, slushy snow before it changes to rain – say a coating to an inch or two.  The possible exception is in the higher elevations of northern Litchfield County.  It may be just cold enough for accumulating snow to continue there into early Wednesday morning, so it’s not out of the question that some places there, near the MA border, could see 6″+ of snow.  There is a Winter Storm Watch up for the Berkshires and north-central MA, where 6″+ amounts are possible.  The RPM model (pictured above) puts out a foot of snow in some of the Berkshires by Wednesday evening.  The southern Green Mountains in VT make out pretty good too!

High temperatures in CT will reach the low-mid 40′s Wednesday.  It will be windy in the morning, with decreasing speeds in the afternoon & evening.  A Coastal Flood Advisory is also up for the shorelines of Fairfield & New Haven Counties between 11 AM – 2 PM Wednesday.  There will be some rain & snow showers around Wednesday night into Thursday, although any wet flakes during the day Thursday may be confined to higher elevations as highs reach the low-mid 40′s in the populous areas of CT.

Radar 7 AM EST

Rather murky out there this morning.  Areas of drizzle & fog.  Radar showing some light showers in eastern CT.  Snow being reported in the Berkshires, Worcester County, MA, and some other areas of western MA north of Springfield/Chicopee.  Temperatures will be cooling aloft during today, so I think we’ll see some flurries & snow showers in CT later.  With surface temps reaching 35-40, most of this should melt on impact.  However, it looks like some moisture will linger into tonight, keeping snow showers around at times during the first half of the night.  As temps drop below freezing, there could be a dusting/coating of snow in parts of CT along with some slick spots.  Should see some clearing after midnight, with lows in the 20′s.

Monday will feature a mix of sun & clouds with highs in the upper 30′s-low 40′s.  Tuesday looks partly sunny with increasing clouds and highs in the low 40′s.  Our next precipitation event Tuesday night into Wednesday will be mostly rain, but could start as a mix Tuesday night.

Radar 3:50 PM EST

A lot of what is showing up to our west on radar is not reaching  the ground, but a few of us may experience a light rain or snow shower this evening or tonight.

ECMWF Forecast 1 AM EST Sunday

Tonight will be mostly cloudy with lows in the mid-upper 20′s.  Some flurries and areas of light snow will arrive Saturday morning.  The snow will accumulate to between a coating and 2″ before it mixes with and changes to rain from south to north in the afternoon or evening.  Highs will be in the 30′s, so heavily traveled roads will probably be primarily wet during the day.  I don’t think there will be much snow accumulation Saturday night in the valleys and across the southern half of Connecticut.  The snow may mix with some sleet or freezing rain in the northwest hills (CT) for a while Saturday night, but some additional snow accumulation will likely occur there.  Lows Saturday night will be between 29-34.  Precipitation will linger through Sunday into Sunday night.  I think high temperatures through most of CT will reach 35-40 Sunday, so this precipitation will probably fall as a combination of light snow and light rain.  The northern hills will probably remain mostly snow Sunday (with temps a bit colder there) with another 2″-3″ accumulating, however the rest of CT probably won’t see more than another coating to an inch or two, and most of that will probably be on old snow, with roads mainly wet again.  There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect for western MA, east of Berkshire County.  Snowfall totals of 6″ or more are possible in that region and it should be a mostly snow event there.

ECMWF Forecast 7 AM EST Sunday

Tonight will be mostly clear with the wind finally diminishing after midnight.  Lows between 16-22.  Friday will be a more comfortable day as high pressure builds in.  Morning sunshine will mix with some high clouds in the afternoon.  Wind will be light and temps will moderate, getting into the upper 30′s.

As one low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes this weekend, another will move off the mid-Atlantic coast and deepen a bit as it moves up to the south of New England.  Some flurries or light snow will develop during Saturday.  There could be some flurries around as early as Saturday morning, but accumulations will probably be small – say a coating to an inch or so, before it changes to rain later Saturday or Saturday evening.  Highs will reach the upper 30′s-low 40′s.  As the low deepens southeast of us Saturday night and Sunday, colder air will be drawn back in, allowing the rain to change back to snow late Saturday night or early Sunday (from northwest to southeast).  An inverted trough coming around the back of this system will probably keep some lingering light snow or snow showers around through much of the day Sunday.  At this time, I am anticipating snow accumulations of 3″-6″ across northern CT and western MA and a coating -3″ across the southern half of the state, (by the end of the day Sunday) with the lower amounts along parts of the coast .

ECMWF Forecast 1 AM EST Sunday

Our weather will generally remain dry, windy, & cold into Thursday.  There could still be a snow flurry in a couple spots this evening though, and there will be some more snow showers/flurries in the Berkshires tomorrow.  Lows tonight will drop back between 15-21.  The breeze will hold up, producing wind-chills in the single numbers to around 0 or slightly below at times later tonight.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  The wind is being generated by the pressure difference (gradient) between a low in the Canadian Maritimes and a high centered over south-central Canada.  These systems will continue to generate windy weather here again Thursday.  Highs 27-32 – about 10 degrees below average.  As the high builds in more Friday, we’ll see sunshine, mixing with some high clouds in the afternoon, and less wind.  Temperatures will moderate with highs possibly reaching 40.

Low pressure will track off the coast south of us this weekend.  The average model track with this one brings it far enough north to change us over to rain for a while (up to about the CT/MA border, anyway), and then back to snow later Saturday night.  The initial flurries could reach parts of the area before noon Saturday, but it doesn’t really get going until afternoon.  The snow wouldn’t end until sometime Sunday.  Several inches accumulation can be anticipated with this system, even if it goes to rain for a while.  Areas that don’t change stand to receive a significant snowfall.  Still a bit early to say where, exactly, in New England, this will be, though.

NAM Forecast 10 AM EST Today

The big ocean storm threw back a little snow into CT last night and early this morning.  Killingly, CT reported 3.0″ at 6:45 A.M. and a report from Griswold around 8:30 A.M. showed 2.5″.  Most of the state saw little or no accumulation.    Boston and Providence reported some moderate to heavy snow for a while this morning.  Any light snow or flurries in eastern CT will be ending this morning.

The main effect of this storm for most of CT  will be to produce windy & cold conditions through the rest of today into tonight.  Temps stay mainly in the 20′s today, with wind chills of 5-15 degrees, as the northwest wind blows at 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40-50 mph this afternoon.  The clouds should gradually thin out during the day. It will remain windy & very cold tonight.  Lows 7-15 with windchills -5 to -15  at times.  Mostly sunny & breezy tomorrow.  Wind diminishing later in the day into tomorrow evening.  Highs Monday in the low 30′s.  Some sun Tuesday morning will be followed by increasing clouds and rain showers in the afternoon.  A stiffening south wind will push temps into the low-mid 40′s.

ECMWF Forecast 7 PM EST Saturday

The models continue to wrestle with this weekend’s forecast, as they have all week.  As it stands right now, after a gorgeous mid-February afternoon that has seen portions of our area reach 50 degrees, some light snow will develop late tonight – toward or after midnight.  This will be in response to a small low pressure area that will move up and along a cold front that will reach us prior to the light snow start time.  It may still be mild enough in parts of southern CT, that there could be a little bit of light rain mixed in initially.  After this area of light snow wanes Saturday morning, accumulations will probably range from a coating to 2″.

A large storm will be brewing over the ocean this weekend and the western fringe of the precipitation will be uncomfortably close to us.    I expect that there will be some flurries and snow showers around Saturday afternoon and night, and maybe some periods of light snow – especially across far eastern CT.  This could produce another coating-2″ by the time it ends early Sunday, with  the higher amounts most likely near and east of the I-395  corridor.  It’s the proverbial “if the storm tracks a little east/west we get less/more snow situation.  Highs will be in the 30′s Saturday, so I would think a lot of it would melt on main roads.

It will turn colder and windier during Saturday night.  Lows by Sunday morning reach 18-24.  After any snow showers end early Sunday, we should see some clearing and it will be windy & cold.  Highs in the 20′s (near freezing along the shoreline).

Because of the trouble the models have had resolving this situation and the continued disparity in their solutions, my confidence level with this forecast is lower than usually, even though the initial area of light snow is only about 9 hours away.

NAM Forecast 7 PM EST Saturday

The 18Z (1 PM EST) model runs of the GFS & NAM are not so hot on the snow potential Saturday, keeping things further south & east.  The midday runs are generally not as reliable as the early morning and evening runs, as they don’t have as much data available when they initialize.  However, the are still some ???s surrounding Saturday’s potential snow.  If it does materialize, amounts would likely be on the light side (i.e. 1″-3″/2″-4″), however at this point, I’d say the jury’s still out on whether it’s going to happen.  Hopefully, tonight’s Euro run will shed some light.

A low moving out of the Great lakes will head toward the St. Lawrence River Valley tonight/Friday.  While most of the precipitation with this stays to our north & west, I wouldn’t be surprised if a few flurries make it into the Berkshires tonight.