Some T-Storms, Then Cooler & Drier

Radar 5:43 P.M. EDT

Radar 5:43 P.M. EDT

A broken band of thunderstorms is moving across parts of the region this evening/early tonight.  A cold front will pass around midnight, followed by a windshift into the northwest.  This will start to draw cooler, drier back in.  Lows overnight will be about 60-65.  Thursday looks mostly sunny, with a northwest breeze and comfortable humidity.  Highs 77-83.  Friday will also be mostly sunny. Highs holding in the 70′s.  Saturday looks partly cloudy.  Highs 75-80.

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Nice Weather Continues

Surface MapHigh pressure over the northeast will keep pleasant weather around through Tuesday.  A cold front, scheduled to arrive late Wednesday, may trigger of shower or thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon or evening.  Humidity levels will increase slightly between now and Wednesday, then drop off Wednesday night & Thursday.  Some patchy fog is possible in parts of the region toward dawn Tuesday and Wednesday.  Dry, comfortable weather in store for us behind the front Thursday & Friday.  High temperatures will be in the 80′s Tuesday & Wednesday.  Lows will be 55-65 tonight and 60-65 early Wednesday.

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Another Cool Pool

NAM Depicting Mid-Level Low at 2 PM Friday

NAM Depicting Mid-Level Low at 2 PM Friday

This has been the summer of the upper-level low.  A parade of these mid-upper level systems have been moving over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. during much of this summer, keeping temperatures down.  There are locations in southern Quebec & Ontario Provinces this afternoon that are only in the upper 40′s-low 50′s (it’s raining there).  Now that’s cool for an August afternoon!

Our weather will remain mostly dry and comfortable, with below average temperatures and low humidity into the weekend.  A scattered shower is possible in a few towns this evening/first part of tonight and maybe again late Friday, due to instability aloft, however mostly dry weather will continue through Saturday.  Highs will be in the 70′s Friday and near 80 Saturday.  The chance for a few showers and maybe some thunder develops Saturday night into part of Sunday.

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Another Nice Weekend

NAM Forecast for 8 A.M. Sunday. High pressure ridge is circled.

NAM Forecast for 8 A.M. Sunday. High pressure ridge is circled.

We’ve had several weekends this summer with very nice weather.  This weekend looks to be no exception.  As a mid-upper level low pressure system slowly pulls out of the Canadian Maritimes, a high pressure ridge will build in from the west.  The sinking, drying air associated with this ridge will provide us with dry, comfortable weather through the weekend.  There will also be ample light provided at night by the moon which becomes full at 2:10 P.M. EDT on Sunday.

Tonight will be clear to partly cloudy with lows between 53-60.  Mostly sunny Saturday. Highs in the low-mid 80′s (average high is 84).  Continued low humidity with dewpoints in the 50′s. Clear Saturday night.  Lows 54-62. Sunny Sunday. Highs in the 80′s. Mostly sunny Monday.  Highs in the low-mid 80′s. Next chance for rain, based on current timing, is not until Tuesday night & Wednesday.

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Smoke

Visible Satellite 4:45 P.M. EDT

Visible Satellite 4:45 P.M. EDT

I think this is smoke blowing down from fires in Canada. Scattered showers & t-storms ending this evening. Friday & the weekend look good! Sunny. 80′s.

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Some Thunder Tonight?

Radar 5:50 P.M. EDT

Radar 5:50 P.M. EDT

A cold front approaching from the west has thunderstorms along and in advance of it, affecting upstate NY and parts of PA this afternoon.  This front will arrive in CT & western MA late tonight.  I expect that coverage and intensity of the thunderstorms to decrease before reaching our region, but not dissipate completely.  So after a pleasant evening for most of us, the threat for a shower or t-storm is there tonight.  Lows will be mostly in the low-mid 60′s, with perhaps a few upper 50′s in the cooler pockets to the north.

The front will tend to stall nearby Wednesday, resulting in varying amounts of cloudiness and the continued chance for a shower or thundershower during the day.  Highs mostly in the low 80′s.  We will see a mix of sun & clouds Thursday.  With a mid-upper level trough axis over us, the chance for a shower or t-storm is still there, despite fairly dry air at the surface.  Highs 78-82.  Friday & Saturday look mostly sunny at this point, with a mix of sun & clouds Sunday.  High temperatures during those 3 days mostly between 78-85.

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Dicey Weekend

Latest NAM forecasts 70%-90% Relative Humidity over the region and no measurable rain between 8 AM-2 PM

Latest NAM forecasts 70%-90% Relative Humidity over the region and no measurable rain between 8 AM-2 PM

There will be some scattered shower & t-storm activity across the area into this evening & the first part of tonight.  A few towns will see a heavy shower/downpour/thunder, while others stay dry.  Late tonight looks partly cloudy with lows between 58-64.  I think we’ll see more clouds than sun tomorrow (but some of both) and there will be some scattered showers & storms around again by afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 80′s and it will be a bit more humid (dewpoints reaching 62-65).

The ECMWF model is currently forecasting 0.50"-0.75" of rain between 8 AM-2 PM Saturday (same period NAM puts out 0 - see above image)

The ECMWF model is currently forecasting 0.50″-0.75″ of rain between 8 AM-2 PM Saturday (same period NAM puts out 0 – see above image)

The weekend is still a bit of a head-scratcher.  Usually by Thursday confidence in Saturday’s forecast is fairly high, but that’s not the case today.  There will be a band of sub-tropical moisture working up from the south.  The potential is there for us to see several hours of steady/heavy rain, however several of the models are still putting out little to no precipitation.  I think these may be too optimistic, but whether or not we see a significant band of rain move up over parts of the region (ala the ECMWF – see image to left) remains to be seen.

For now, I’d say Saturday will be mostly cloudy with a couple showers or a period of rain and highs in the 70′s to around 80.  Still the chance for a shower or two Sunday, with highs 75-80.  Stay tuned.

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Un-July-Like

NAM 500 millibar level forecast for 2 PM Wednesday

NAM 500 millibar level forecast for 2 PM Wednesday

The weather pattern aloft (and much of this week) is more reminiscent of something you would see during the cold season – a closed low over eastern Canada and trough across the northeast U.S.  This is resulting in some cloudiness this afternoon, and below-average temperatures in the northeast.  Tonight looks partly cloudy with lows in the 50′s.  We can expect a mix of sun & clouds Wednesday, and there might be a scattered shower in a few spots before the day is over.  Thursday & Friday are looking partly cloudy with the chance for a shower both days and highs between 78-83.  An inverted trough offshore and a band of moisture moving up from the south will probably result in some unsettled weather during part of the weekend.  Not sure yet if this will be Saturday, Sunday, or both.

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Changing Into Something A Little More Comfortable……..

GFS Forecast 2 PM Tuesday

GFS Forecast 2 PM Tuesday

Any lingering showers or storms will wrap up by early tonight.  Otherwise, we will see varying amounts of cloudiness, and lows by morning averaging 55-60.  The humidity will be dropping a bit too, tonight.  The next couple of days look mostly dry & comfortable, although I don’t trust the southwest flow aloft and cyclonic flow, in general.  So, although the models don’t really suggest any precipitation before maybe a shower on Thursday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a scattered shower or two before then.  However, most of Tuesday & Wednesday will feature a mix of sun & clouds, with temperatures slightly below average.  Highs in the upper 70′s-low 80′s tomorrow and 79-84 Wednesday.

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Weekend Update

Visible Satellite Image 4:45 P.M.

Visible Satellite Image 4:45 P.M.

The upper-level steering flow will continue to feed some moisture in from the southwest during the next 24-36 hours.  The result will be partly cloudy conditions tonight and a fair amount of high and mid-level clouds Saturday (mixing with some filtered sun).  Conditions will remain dry & comfortable.  Lows overnight mostly between 53-61 and highs Saturday between 78-84. Saturday night looks mostly cloudy with lows between 57-62.  Sunday is still a bit tricky to forecast, but at this point it looks partly cloudy with maybe a 30% chance for a shower. Highs in the low 80′s, though dependent on how much sun we see.  Monday’s outlook: mostly sunny. Highs 78-84.  It turns hot & humid for the middle of next week.  Tuesday & Wednesday feature a mix of sun & clouds, with highs 85-90.  There could be a scattered shower or t-storm somewhere on one or both of those days.

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