Light Mix To Rain Tonight

Visible Satellite Image 8:45 A.M. EST

Visible Satellite Image 8:45 A.M. EST

Satellite imagery this morning shows northwestern portions of southern New England seeing some sun.  This may also spread a bit further east before clouds thicken up again later today.  Cold, high pressure is retreating to the northeast as a small, weak low drifts up from the south.  Expect some light, mixed precipitation to develop this evening, quickly becoming rain near the coast.  Further inland the mix will last longer before changing to rain, however I don’t expect more than a dusting or coating of snow to accumulate, even across northwestern CT and the Berkshires.  This is because the temperature aloft (3,000-6,000 feet) will rise above freezing during this evening/early tonight.  Slippery conditions however, will likely develop in parts of northwestern CT and western MA due to sleet and freezing rain, with the surface temperature remaining stubbornly near or slightly below freezing for a while tonight.

The rain will tend to taper by Wednesday morning, however clouds will linger, along with the chance for a shower or two during the day.  Drier, colder weather takes hold Wednesday night into the daytime Friday.  High temperatures Wednesday could crack 50 in many places, however after that don’t expect to see anything warmer than the 40′s for a while.

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Some Light, Mixed Precipitation Tuesday Night

NAM Forecast 7 PM EST Tuesday

NAM Forecast 7 PM EST Tuesday

Enjoy the mild weather while it lasts today.  A cold front will pass across the region this afternoon and be followed by falling temperatures later today and tonight.  This front may produce a couple light showers in parts of CT (especially to the south) this afternoon/evening, however most of the moisture will remain just to our south and east.  Temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight.  As milder air, on an ocean flow tries to push back in starting late Tuesday, some light, mixed precipitation will develop Tuesday evening/night.  As usual, much of the precipitation will likely be rain near the coast, although there will probably be a little light snow and/or sleet at the start.  The frozen precipitation will last a little longer further inland, however I don’t expect much more than a coating of snow to accumulate until you get up into northwestern MA, where there could be a couple of inches.  Even across the interior, the frozen precipitation will gradually change over to rain as temperatures slowly rise during Tuesday night.  The rain will taper off Wednesday morning, although clouds may linger.  As the milder air continues to push in, highs Wednesday could hit 50 in many places.

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Weekend Outlook (and beyond)

GFS Forecast Sunday 1 PM EDT

GFS Forecast Sunday 1 PM EDT

A very turbulent/disturbed atmosphere out there this afternoon due to cold air aloft associated with a well defined trough.  Any intervals of sun this afternoon will tend to be self-destructive and give way to clouds again.  A scattered shower is possible, and some sleet and/or snow showers are not out of the question for higher elevations.  It will stay breezy/windy this afternoon with temps trying to reach 50 in the most populated areas.  The wind should start to ease up during tonight and tomorrow.  Much of the area will see the temperature drop below freezing overnight.

The weekend doesn’t look half bad.  Should be partly sunny both days.  Maybe a cloudier period later Saturday night into early Sunday, and perhaps even a shower as a surface trough moves through.  A touch of sleet or snow again possible across the higher els.  High temperatures will remain in the 40′s Saturday, but will be more like the low-mid 50′s Sunday afternoon.  Decent weather holds on Monday with sunshine and highs in the low-mid 50′s.

Tuesday looks to be the mildest day of the week with parts of the region reaching 60 degrees!  A cold front arrives by Tuesday night, though, and temperatures will be cooler during the second half of the week.  The current weather pattern is favorable for cold & snowy weather if it continues into the next month or two and it could happen sooner rather than later.  It gets a little interesting later next week (i.e. Thursday night/Friday) with colder air established over our area and moisture lurking just offshore.  Maybe be worth watching, but still pretty far out, timewise.

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Upper Level Low = Stubborn Rain

Radar 11:33 A.M.

Radar 11:33 A.M.

There is currently a low pressure area in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere centered right over us.  Areas of rain are rotating around this cyclonic circulation and will be slow to leave, as these systems are usually (as this one is) slow movers.  The rainfall today will be unevenly distributed.  There will be pockets of heavy rain in places, while many other locations have light rain, scattered showers, or no precipitation at the same time.  This is illustrated in the recent radar image above.

Areas of rain & showers will continue into tonight and part of Thursday morning.  Things should improve incrementally Thursday afternoon as the low begin to drift further east.  Friday look like a good day as a ridge slides in from the west.  However, clouds will be thickening again Saturday, with some more rain developing by midday/afternoon.

Temperatures will not go higher than the low 60′s in most places today.  Maybe a couple/few degrees higher Thursday, and even with sunshine Friday, it will be a struggle to reach 70.

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Disorganized

Radar 5:30 P.M.

Radar 5:30 P.M.

Radar continues to show that the rain affecting parts of the region remains pretty disorganized.  This is a result of the dry air holding on that is associated with high pressure centered northeast of here.  Parts of northern CT and points north will see little to no rain from this system.  Elsewhere, scattered areas of (mostly) light rain and showers will taper off tonight, as low pressure moves further offshore.  Lows 48-55.  The sky will become mostly sunny Friday with highs in the 70′s.  The weekend still looks nice – sunny with highs 77-83!

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How Wet?

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Wednesday

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Wednesday

The models continue to disagree on how much rain will fall across the region Thursday & Thursday night as low pressure meanders up the east coast.  High pressure, centered over eastern Maine today, will have a blocking effect of the approaching low.  Just how effective this is and the actual interaction between these two systems, will determine how much rain falls.  The potential for over an inch exists – especially in parts of southern CT, however some of the modeling suggests considerably lower amounts – especially to the north.

Clouds will thicken up overnight.  Lows between 49-56.  Expect areas of rain and showers to develop from south to north Thursday morning and continue into the afternoon.  Highs 58-66. There will likely still be some showers around at times Thursday night – at least for a while.  Lingering clouds and maybe a shower in some places Friday morning, then becoming partly sunny.  Highs 70-75.  The weekend looks sunny & warm with highs in the mid-upper 70′s Saturday and 76-81 Sunday.

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A Dry Week

GFS Forecast Thursday 8 A.M.

GFS Forecast Thursday 8 A.M.

High pressure covers much of the lower 48 today and there is no tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.  The only chance for any shower/rain between now and sometime next week is on Thursday.  Low pressure moving up, offshore could brush us with some precipitation Thursday, but there is a 50% chance that it will remain too far south & east of us to do so.

Tonight will be clear & chilly with lows 35-45.  Tuesday & Wednesday will be sunny.  Highs 65-70 tomorrow and 67-72 Wednesday.  For now, let’s call Thursday partly cloudy with the chance for some showers.  High near 70.  Friday & the weekend look sunny & milder, with temps rising through the 70′s, to possibly 80 or so in some locations by the weekend.

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Weekend Update

NAM Forecast 8 A.M. Sunday

NAM Forecast 8 A.M. Sunday

Skies will become partly cloudy tonight, with lows mostly in the 40′s.  Some places may see patchy form toward morning. Temperatures will turn milder during the weekend.  Saturday looks partly sunny with highs between 68-74.  It will become mostly cloudy during Saturday night.  Some areas of fog & drizzle developing late, along with the chance for a shower or two.  Lows 57-62.  Same thing Sunday morning – clouds, areas of fog/drizzle, chance for a shower.  Then it will become partly sunny by Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be warmer & more humid, with highs between 77-82, if we see enough sun!  A cold front will pass Sunday night with a shower or thundershower, and will be followed by a partly sunny Monday, with highs 67-73.

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Turning Cooler

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Today

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Today

A cold front will pass across the region early tonight, bringing in cooler air that will keep temperatures Friday about 10 degrees cooler than today.  Most of the area will remain dry as the front passes. Tonight will be partly cloudy with lows mostly in the 40′s (some upper 30′s in the northwest hills, closer to 50 or so along the shore). Friday looks mostly sunny with highs 60-65 (average high is 74 at BDL).  Some of the northwest hills may stay in the upper 50′s.  Partly cloudy Friday night & Saturday.  Lows 35-45 Friday night.  Highs Saturday 66-72.  Milder Sunday.  Highs reaching the mid-upper 70′s under a partly sunny sky.  A few showers Sunday night with the next cold front, then back to sunshine Monday, with highs 65-70.

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Mostly Dry This Week

 

NAM 500 Millibar Forecast 8 AM Tuesday (short wave circled)

NAM 500 Millibar Forecast 8 AM Tuesday (short wave circled)

A mid-level “short wave” may trigger a shower Tuesday morning.  Aside from that possibility, most of this week looks dry & comfortable during the day and a bit chilly at night.  After a mostly clear start, clouds will increase late tonight. Lows 46-52. Chance for a shower Tuesday morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon.  Highs 68-73. Clear & chilly Tuesday night.  Lows 43-51. Mostly sunny Wednesday.  Highs 67-72. Partly cloudy Thursday.  Highs 69-74. Mostly sunny Friday.  Highs in the low-mid 60′s.

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