NAM Forecast 2 PM EDT Tuesday

After some decent weather over the last couple of days, things will once again become unsettled here.  An area of low pressure trying to organize over the Midwest will move northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday.  Our sky will become mostly cloudy tonight and we pick up the chance for a shower or two after 11 PM or so.  Lows tonight will be mostly in the upper 40′s.  As the pressure gradient between this low and the departing high to the east tightens, southerly winds will pick up Tuesday to about 20 mph, with some gusts to 35-40 mph.  It will remain on the cloudy sky with a couple showers around and highs in the 60-65 degree range.

Conditions will remain unsettled at times Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the precipitation potentially becoming more widespread and better organized by later Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front associated with the low tends to slow down or stall near us, and another wave of low pressure tries to get going on it.

4 PM Update: Latest Euro joins the GFS in keeping better organized rain to the south & east late Wednesday/Wednesday night, possibly grazing southeastern CT.

Visible Satellite 7:02 AM EDT

Yes, we have again started the day with some low clouds & areas of light fog, however today, we had breaks in the clouds predawn, and the sun is out in many places at this point.  High pressure continues to build down into the northeast, however there is an inverted trough that extends all the way from the Midwest into the northeast. The end of this trough is located close to our area this morning and may act as the focal point for some scattered shower activity today.  Otherwise, we’ll continue with a mix of clouds & sun.  Highs this afternoon

US Surface Plot & Radar 7 AM EDT

will be mostly in the mid-upper 60′s.  Tonight looks partly cloudy with lows in the 40′s.  Monday will feature a mix of sun & clouds, with highs between 48-53.  Cloudiness will increase Monday night as low pressure begins to get organized to our west.  This low will produce some showers and areas of rain here Tuesday, with a south wind increasing to 20 mph, gusting to 30+ mph.

It was nice to see the sun again this afternoon, just to know it’s still there.  During tonight, clouds will tend to fill back in and there is the chance for a shower or some drizzle.  Low temperatures will be in the low-mid 50′s.  We will probably start out gray in many places Saturday morning, with some drizzle or a light shower in parts of the area.  However, clouds will mix with sun again – especially from late morning into the afternoon.  Highs will reach the upper 60′s-low 70′s.  Saturday night looks partly cloudy with lows in the 40′s (some upper 30′s across the northwest hills).  There will be some PVA Sunday, however the air mass should be pretty dry with high pressure building down from Canada, so we’ll call it mostly sunny.  Highs close to 70.

NAM Temperature Forecast 5 PM Friday

When the NAM suggested this earlier today, I took it with a grain of salt.  But now that the ECMWF (my preferred model this week) is trying to say basically the same thing, I think it’s time to make an adjustment in Friday’s forecast.  After a cloudy night with  a shower or two late, and a few showers Friday morning, it looks like the clouds may thin out a bit Friday afternoon.  So I’m thinking the sky will brighten, and we may even see some filtered sun Friday afternoon.  This would boost temperatures up to about 65-75, coolest east, mildest west. You still can’t rule out another shower or thundershower during Friday afternoon, however.  Some of the modeling suggest there could be a scattered shower over the weekend, but I expect mostly dry conditions and will leave that part of the forecast in tact for now.

Visible Satellite 1:45 PM EDT

That stubborn warm front is still sitting west of us.  It stretches from central NY state down into PA.  Being north & east of the front, we remain locked in with cloud cover, and in some cases some patchy fog/spotty drizzle.  Looks likes little will change this afternoon, with temperature in most places remaining in the 50′s.  We’ll stay cloudy tonight, with a shower or two developing – especially after midnight.  Lows will be in the low 50′s.  I haven’t really changed the rest of the forecast since yesterday: Unsettled Friday, with occasional showers and highs in the 60′s to around 70 (I would not bet money on Friday’s forecast highs).  Drier for the weekend.  Partly cloudy Saturday and fair Sunday, with highs mostly in the upper 60′s-low 70′s.

Northeast Surface Plot & Radar 4:17 PM EDT

The weather conditions we have experienced during the past couple days is typical of that found in New England ahead of a warm front in the spring.  The front in question is currently draped across the middle of PA.  West of this front temperatures are in the 70′s & 80′s.  The front will have great difficulty moving into our region and will probably never completely make it through.  As a result, we can expect more of the same for another day or two.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a few showers redeveloping – especially after midnight.   Low temperatures mostly between 46-51.  A few of these showers will linger into Thursday morning.  There could be some brightening sky during the afternoon.  Highs 58-63.  Thursday night looks mostly cloudy with a couple showers developing again – especially late.  Lows will be in the low 50′s.  Friday will be unsettled, as the warm front pushes in closer.  Expect showers at times and highs in the 60′s to possibly around 70.  At this point the weekend looks dry, with average highs in the low 70′s.

NAM Forecast 2 PM EDT Tuesday

A small area of low pressure centered near Chicago this afternoon will migrate eastward and pass near or just south of us Tuesday.  This low will bring some rain in late tonight (beginning after midnight, and most likely during the predawn hours) and Tuesday morning.  The rain will taper to a scattered shower or some drizzle Tuesday afternoon.  Looks like average rainfall amounts will be on the order of 3/4 of an inch, give or take.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40′s.  The combination of the clouds, rain, and an onshore wind flow Tuesday will keep highs in the 50′s.  Clouds, areas of fog, and some spotty drizzle will probably linger Tuesday night.  Clouds will mix with some sun Wednesday and highs will reach the 60′s.

US Surface Plot & Radar

High pressure is centered over Lake Superior this morning. This high will continue to build into the northeast, resulting in dry weather through Monday.  Temperatures this morning are starting out in the 30′s in many places, with some 20′s in the cold spots, and around 40 at the shore.  The freeze warning is still in effect inland until 8 AM across interior southern CT and until 10 AM across northern CT and western MA.  Another freeze watch has already been issued for late tonight into early Monday.  The wind

NAM Forecast 2 PM EDT Tuesday

is generally less than 10 mph early this morning, but will increase to about 15-20 mpg with gusts to 30 mph or so by this afternoon.  Sky conditions will remain sunny, with highs later today generally running between 55-60.  Tonight will be clear with lows between 25-35.  BDL’s record low for Monday is 31 (1978).  After a frosty start, temperatures will moderate Monday, reaching the 60′s in the afternoon under a sunny sky.  Clouds will increase Monday night and some showers will develop late Monday night into Tuesday, as a small area of low pressure tries to get organized just south of us.  Lows will be in the 40′s Monday night and the combination of clouds, showers, and an onshore wind flow will probably keep temps in the 50′s Tuesday.  After Tuesday, though, temperatures will again turn milder.

Northeast Surface Plot & Radar 5:11 PM EDT

Temperatures struggled this afternoon and will drop into the 20′s in many places by dawn – more like 30-35 along the shore.  The record low for BDL Saturday is 29 degrees and for BDR, 33 degrees.  Both are doable.  Average lows this time of year are in the low 40′s.  The wind will ease some overnight, but there may still be a light breeze.  A Freeze Warning is up across the entire region overnight into Saturday morning, so bring the plants and kids in.  The sky will be mostly clear overnight.  Saturday, sun will mix with some clouds during the day.  It will be a little breezy, though the wind should be a little lighter than today.  After a cold start, highs reach 55-60.  Low pressure will pass out to our south Saturday night.  I’m still keeping the forecast dry and partly cloudy here Saturday night, however the northern fringe of the precipitation shield will come close, so it is worth watching how it progresses.  Sunday looks mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 50′s.  After that, it begins to turn milder.  For example, Monday’s highs will reach the 60′s under a mostly sunny sky.

NAM Surface Forecast 2 AM EDT Friday

It looks like the low pressure area heading this way wants to break up into two pieces, with two separate areas of rain, as opposed to yesterday’s modeled solution of a single low tracking right over us.  As a result the shower activity late today and tonight will tend to be on the disorganized side.  Most areas will probably see less than 0.25″.  Lows will be in the 40′s tonight.  With high pressure building in from Canada Friday, we will see sunshine mixed with a few clouds and the pressure gradient between the high and departing low(s) will result in a rather windy day featuring northwesterlies at about 20 mph, gusting to 35-40 mph.  Temperatures will drop below freezing (27-32 degrees) through most of CT Friday night.  A freeze watch has been issued for much of interior CT and MA Friday overnight into early Saturday morning.

Another area of low pressure will slide east this weekend, bringing the northern fringe of precipitation close to CT, however I’m still leaning toward us staying dry here (despite the latest NAM run).  Looks like sun mixing with clouds Saturday and highs between 55-60.  Mostly sunny Sunday.  Highs in the 50′s.  Should turn milder Monday & Tuesday.