Upper Level Low = Stubborn Rain

Radar 11:33 A.M.

Radar 11:33 A.M.

There is currently a low pressure area in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere centered right over us.  Areas of rain are rotating around this cyclonic circulation and will be slow to leave, as these systems are usually (as this one is) slow movers.  The rainfall today will be unevenly distributed.  There will be pockets of heavy rain in places, while many other locations have light rain, scattered showers, or no precipitation at the same time.  This is illustrated in the recent radar image above.

Areas of rain & showers will continue into tonight and part of Thursday morning.  Things should improve incrementally Thursday afternoon as the low begin to drift further east.  Friday look like a good day as a ridge slides in from the west.  However, clouds will be thickening again Saturday, with some more rain developing by midday/afternoon.

Temperatures will not go higher than the low 60′s in most places today.  Maybe a couple/few degrees higher Thursday, and even with sunshine Friday, it will be a struggle to reach 70.

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Disorganized

Radar 5:30 P.M.

Radar 5:30 P.M.

Radar continues to show that the rain affecting parts of the region remains pretty disorganized.  This is a result of the dry air holding on that is associated with high pressure centered northeast of here.  Parts of northern CT and points north will see little to no rain from this system.  Elsewhere, scattered areas of (mostly) light rain and showers will taper off tonight, as low pressure moves further offshore.  Lows 48-55.  The sky will become mostly sunny Friday with highs in the 70′s.  The weekend still looks nice – sunny with highs 77-83!

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How Wet?

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Wednesday

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Wednesday

The models continue to disagree on how much rain will fall across the region Thursday & Thursday night as low pressure meanders up the east coast.  High pressure, centered over eastern Maine today, will have a blocking effect of the approaching low.  Just how effective this is and the actual interaction between these two systems, will determine how much rain falls.  The potential for over an inch exists – especially in parts of southern CT, however some of the modeling suggests considerably lower amounts – especially to the north.

Clouds will thicken up overnight.  Lows between 49-56.  Expect areas of rain and showers to develop from south to north Thursday morning and continue into the afternoon.  Highs 58-66. There will likely still be some showers around at times Thursday night – at least for a while.  Lingering clouds and maybe a shower in some places Friday morning, then becoming partly sunny.  Highs 70-75.  The weekend looks sunny & warm with highs in the mid-upper 70′s Saturday and 76-81 Sunday.

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A Dry Week

GFS Forecast Thursday 8 A.M.

GFS Forecast Thursday 8 A.M.

High pressure covers much of the lower 48 today and there is no tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.  The only chance for any shower/rain between now and sometime next week is on Thursday.  Low pressure moving up, offshore could brush us with some precipitation Thursday, but there is a 50% chance that it will remain too far south & east of us to do so.

Tonight will be clear & chilly with lows 35-45.  Tuesday & Wednesday will be sunny.  Highs 65-70 tomorrow and 67-72 Wednesday.  For now, let’s call Thursday partly cloudy with the chance for some showers.  High near 70.  Friday & the weekend look sunny & milder, with temps rising through the 70′s, to possibly 80 or so in some locations by the weekend.

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Weekend Update

NAM Forecast 8 A.M. Sunday

NAM Forecast 8 A.M. Sunday

Skies will become partly cloudy tonight, with lows mostly in the 40′s.  Some places may see patchy form toward morning. Temperatures will turn milder during the weekend.  Saturday looks partly sunny with highs between 68-74.  It will become mostly cloudy during Saturday night.  Some areas of fog & drizzle developing late, along with the chance for a shower or two.  Lows 57-62.  Same thing Sunday morning – clouds, areas of fog/drizzle, chance for a shower.  Then it will become partly sunny by Sunday afternoon.  Sunday will be warmer & more humid, with highs between 77-82, if we see enough sun!  A cold front will pass Sunday night with a shower or thundershower, and will be followed by a partly sunny Monday, with highs 67-73.

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Turning Cooler

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Today

U.S. Surface Map 2 P.M. Today

A cold front will pass across the region early tonight, bringing in cooler air that will keep temperatures Friday about 10 degrees cooler than today.  Most of the area will remain dry as the front passes. Tonight will be partly cloudy with lows mostly in the 40′s (some upper 30′s in the northwest hills, closer to 50 or so along the shore). Friday looks mostly sunny with highs 60-65 (average high is 74 at BDL).  Some of the northwest hills may stay in the upper 50′s.  Partly cloudy Friday night & Saturday.  Lows 35-45 Friday night.  Highs Saturday 66-72.  Milder Sunday.  Highs reaching the mid-upper 70′s under a partly sunny sky.  A few showers Sunday night with the next cold front, then back to sunshine Monday, with highs 65-70.

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Mostly Dry This Week

 

NAM 500 Millibar Forecast 8 AM Tuesday (short wave circled)

NAM 500 Millibar Forecast 8 AM Tuesday (short wave circled)

A mid-level “short wave” may trigger a shower Tuesday morning.  Aside from that possibility, most of this week looks dry & comfortable during the day and a bit chilly at night.  After a mostly clear start, clouds will increase late tonight. Lows 46-52. Chance for a shower Tuesday morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon.  Highs 68-73. Clear & chilly Tuesday night.  Lows 43-51. Mostly sunny Wednesday.  Highs 67-72. Partly cloudy Thursday.  Highs 69-74. Mostly sunny Friday.  Highs in the low-mid 60′s.

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Weekend Outlook

NAM Forecast 2 PM Saturday

NAM Forecast 2 PM Saturday

Sky conditions will remain mostly clear for a while tonight, with a few clouds drifting in late.  It will be cool with lows 47-54.  A weak, elongated area of low pressure at the surface and approaching shortwave aloft will result in increasing & thickening clouds Saturday.  Some showers will affect CT during the mid & late afternoon.  Highs will be between 65-70.  Any showers should finish up by early Saturday night.  Looks like most places will get 0.25″ or less rainfall all together.  Clearing Saturday night after the showers end.  Lows 50-55.  Sunday looks nice - Sunny. Highs 66-71.  Sunny & low 70′s Monday.

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More Humid Thursday

 

NAM Forecast 2 PM Thursday

NAM Forecast 2 PM Thursday

A cold front will approach the area from the northwest Thursday.  A southwest air flow ahead of this front will increase moisture levels here until it passes Thursday evening.  Tonight will be increasingly cloudy with lows between 58-63.  We will see considerable cloudiness and higher humidity  Thursday.  There is the chance for a shower or t-storm in the afternoon or evening. Highs 77-82. After the front passes during Thursday evening, sky conditions will become partly cloudy during Thursday night, with lows dropping into the 50′s (some upper 40′s to the northwest).  Friday looks like a splendid day, with beaucoup sunshine, very low humidity (dewpoints in the 40′s), and high temperatures between 67-73.  Right now the weekend looks partly cloudy with highs between 66-73.  Still wouldn’t rule out a shower at some point.

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Eh

Surface Map 2 PM Tuesday

Surface Map 2 PM Tuesday

Well, it’s not exactly pretty, but at least our weather is for the most part dry & fairly comfortable.  A low pressure system and associated frontal structure centered just of the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon continues to supply some cloudiness to our region courtesy of the south to southwest steering flow aloft.  High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes is still exerting enough influence to keep us dry.  Next significant weather system is a cold front that will bring a band of showers or rain in by late Thursday or Thursday evening (based on current timing).

Sky becomes partly cloudy tonight. Lows mostly in the 50′s (some upper 40′s in the cold pockets to the north). A combination of clouds & some sun Wednesday. Highs in the 70′s.  Partly cloudy Wednesday night. Lows 58-63. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday.  Showers or rain by late in the day or evening. Highs 76-81. Mostly sunny Friday.  Highs 70-75.  Early peek at the weekend: looks mostly dry. Partly cloudy. Maybe a scattered shower. Highs 68-73.

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