NAM Forecast 10 PM EST
It never really seemed like the storm that will pass out well to the south of us today and tonight would make it far enough north to reach southern New England. There were one or two runs of the GFS that were enough to get the rumors flying last week, but not even all of the GFS ensemble members were buying that solution then. Weather patterns are like bowling. Sometimes you get in a groove and everything you throw up there curves into the pocket, other times you can’t buy a strike. This winter has obviously been an off-game for the storm track, at least as far as it relates to snow in southern New England. Since the freak October snowstorm here, BDL has only had 6.8″ of snow and BDR, 7.6″! Since December 1st BDL has had 2396 heating degree days, which is 503 (or about 17%) below average. Of course, the rising price of heating oil may have offset your savings, however natural gas prices remain very low.
Clear sky this morning will be followed by a mix of sun & clouds this afternoon. Highs reach the low-mid 40′s, however a bit of a northwesterly breeze will make it feel 5 or 6 degrees cooler. Tonight is clear with lows averaging 20-25. Monday looks sunny and still a bit breezy. Highs 38-43. We could crack 50 again by Wednesday! The extended progs through the next 2 weeks don’t offer any compelling reason to expect any major changes to what we’ve been seeing.
NAM 15- Panel Forecast Saturday 7 PM EST
High pressure will control our weather tonight into Saturday morning, keeping the area dry. Sky conditions will be partly cloudy tonight, with lows holding between 25-31 across most of the area. Saturday starts off sunny, with clouds increasing by afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 40′s. An upper-level disturbance known as a short wave will arrive by Saturday night, and with it, a few rain & snow showers. If that feature moves quickly enough, it’s possible that some towns could see a rain or snow shower by late in the day. Low temperatures Saturday night will be between 25-32. Sunday, the
NAM Forecast Sunday 4 PM EST
much ballyhooed storm coming out of the Gulf states and tracking off the mid-Atlantic coast will remain to our south, in the southern branch of the jet stream. Around here Sunday, we can expect a mix of clouds and sun and average highs in the 40-45 degree range. High pressure building in behind the storm will provide us with mostly sunny and dry weather Monday & Tuesday. Highs Monday will be 37-43, with temperature moderating to the mid-upper 40′s Tuesday.
Radar 12:10 PM EST
Some of the initial, light precipitation has made it into the area quickly enough, that the temperature is still cold enough (near 40 surface temp, cold aloft) to support a little wet snow & sleet, mixed in with the showers in places. There was a very light mix of rain, snow & sleet in Hartford at noon.
GFS Forecast Sunday 1 PM EST
Rumors about a weekend storm have been floating around for the last couple of days. At this time it looks like the most we would see Sunday would be fringe effects. In the near term, two areas of low pressure will be moving east – one toward Quebec Province and the other moving off the mid-Atlantic coast. The result here will be thickening cloudiness today and some showers arriving by the second half of this afternoon. Considering that cloudiness is increasing now and temps range from the upper 20′s to the mid 30′s at 9 AM, I think the MOS may be a bit high with today’s projected temperatures. I’m thinking we’ll probably not get much higher than the low 40′s today. Although the precipitation should be mostly in the form of showers and light rain later today and tonight, it looks like it will be just cold enough for some wet snow well inland – especially tonight, after evaporative cooling in the boundary layer takes the temp down a few degrees. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an inch or two of snow in parts of northwestern Litchfield County, north into the Berkshires, and a coating from some of the northeastern hills of CT up into Worcester County tonight. For most of us, it’s mostly just rain/showers, accumulating to around 0.25″ (give or take). Lows will be in the low-mid 30′s tonight. There may be some lingering cloudiness early Friday, however we will see a clearing trend during the day. Should be mostly sunny by Friday afternoon. Highs reach 45-50! Saturday will be dry (daylight hours) with highs in the mid-40′s (near 40, northern hills). A small low pressure area passing just to our north Saturday night, accompanied be an upper-level short wave will bring a few rain and snow showers to southern New England.
ECMWF Forecast Sunday 1 PM EST
As far as the rumored Sunday storm, the GFS model has really been the only one bringing that system far enough north to get us, and even some of the ensemble members of the GFS have been rejecting that idea. The GFS has been trending further south, though, and the latest operational run keeps most of the precipitation to our south Sunday (see image). The ECMWF model, however has been keeping the system well south of us all along, but now has trended a bit further north, bringing some lighter, fringe precipitation up to our area Sunday (see image). So at this point, the odds are that we won’t see more than a little light snow (if that) on the northern fringe Sunday, and since it is only Thursday, there will likely be some additional fluctuations in the modelling between now & then.
HRRR Model Accumulated Snowfall Through 11 AM EST Saturday
Midnight Update: Models continue to trend down precipitation amounts. It would appear now that most areas will see between a coating and 1.5″ by the time all is said & done Saturday.
Forecast From Friday: Sunshine will be mixing with clouds as this afternoon wears on. Low pressure will begin to take shape off the mid-Atlantic coast late tonight and Saturday. The main thrust of this low will track well south & east of our area. Areas of light snow
NAM 15-Panel For 10 AM EST Saturday
and snow showers will develop late tonight (especially after midnight). Lows will hold between 26-32. Expect areas of snow and snow showers Saturday, tapering off in the afternoon. This looks like a 1″-3″ type event at this point. Wouldn’t be surprised if some towns came up a little short. Also not out of the question that Groton sees 4″ or 5″, but 1-3 should cover most of us. Highs will be in the 30′s Saturday and there will be some melting, which will lead to icy spots Saturday night as temps turn colder. A north-northwest wind will pick up here, behind the low Saturday night into Sunday. Lows will drop to 16-22 by Sunday morning, with highs averaging 25-30 Sunday afternoon. Monday looks mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 30′s and on Valentine’s Day we will see increasing cloudiness, but temps reach the low-mid 40′s.
RADAR 3:03 PM EST
Radar is beginning to pick up some of the light snow aloft over NJ and southeastern NY state. Light snow is falling in many parts of PA, with a few reports of moderate snow. The high pressure system near us will dry out some of this moisture, leaving only a few flurries or a touch of light snow for us tonight. Worst case scenario looks like a dusting/coating in some places – maybe nothing in others. Lows will be in the low-mid 20′s tonight. Thursday & Friday look mostly sunny & dry, with highs in the mid-40′s. An arctic air mass will
NAM Forecast 10 AM EST Saturday
pay a visit this weekend. The arctic front will arrive early Saturday – probably accompanied by some snow showers. The models are debating about where and when a low pressure wave may form in conjunction with this front. The resolution of that situation will determine when & how much snow is involved (should be on the small side), and when the brunt of the coldest air reaches us. At this point, I’m thinking snow showers Saturday morning (some places could get a covering), then windy and colder Saturday afternoon, with temps falling through the 20′s, and all the way into the teens in parts of northern CT before the end of the day. Sunday: Fair, dry & cold, with highs in the low-mid 20′s, except teens across the northern hills!
34 years ago today the snowstorm which I still use as the yardstick to measure all others by, occurred in southern New England. If you think snowstorm forecasting is imprecise now, you should have seen it then. A series of busted forecasts leading up to this storm led many people to not believe the forecast for this storm (which was actually very good). So, everyone went to school and work that morning despite the forecasted blizzard. This only made the impact of the storm that much greater. The combination of 
high snow totals (24″ in Milford, where I lived at the time), high winds, and coastal flooding has been unequaled around here since. I was 14 back then and recorded the following audio broadcasts on a cassette tape recorder. This was Bob Harris on Newsradio 88 in New York the afternoon before the storm. (Note the fake teletype sound they used to play under their broadcast at the time). This is the broadcast from the NOAA weather radio station in New York that day. And also from WICC in Bridgeport (the station we listened to for school cancellations in that part of the state) here was what Walt Devanas was saying. I cannot recall for sure if the pictures on this page were taken after that storm, but they were from around that time and we rarely saw this much snow on the ground along the CT shoreline.
Visible Satellite 9:15 A.M. EST
The cloudiness that we had mixed in with sunshine early this morning is pushing south of us now. Most of the week looks dry, except for some light snow or flurries Wednesday.
Here’s my 5-day outlook for Hartford :
This aft: Sunny. High near 40. Tonight: Clear early, partly cloudy late. Low 27. Monday: Mostly sunny & a bit breezy. High 50. Mon. Night: Clear to partly cloudy. Low 30. Tuesday: Mixed clouds & sun. High 47. Wednesday: Some light snow or flurries. High 35, Low 27. Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 41, Low 28. Friday: Mixed sun & clouds. High 45, Low 28.
NAM Forecast 4 PM EST Wednesday
Bridgeport, CT’s high of 54 degrees today was good for a record high. BDL came up 3 short, with a high of 56. The record high of 59 was set in 1947. Interestingly, the record low was set the following year when it dropped to -12. Mild weather will continue Wednesday, although BDL will probably come up short again, as the record is 67 degrees (set in 1989). Tonight will be partly cloudy with lows holding in the 30′s (where the average high is). Wednesday will start out with a mostly cloudy sky and a couple showers in the area. A clearing trend will develop in the afternoon. Temps will still be well above average. Highs are somewhat dependent on when the sun comes back out, but at this point, I’m thinking the MOS is too low again and thinking more like 55-62 for highs. A cold front moves across the region Wednesday evening, so temps will cool a bit Wednesday night as winds go northwest. Lows by Thursday morning reach 29-34 under a partly cloudy sky. Thursday will feature a mix of clouds & sun with highs in the 40-45 degree range. Friday & the weekend look mostly sunny with highs 39-44 Friday and mostly 35-40 over the weekend.
