Snow Check

HRRR Model Snowfall Accumulation Forecast Through Midnight

HRRR Model Snowfall Accumulation Forecast Through Midnight (Click To Enlarge)

Snow will develop across Connecticut from west to east between now and 5:00 P.M. this afternoon.  Most of the accumulating snow should be over by 10:00 P.M. or 11:00 P.M., but there may be some lingering light snow or flurries at times after  that.  Accumulations will range from 1″-4″, with the lower amounts in parts of northeastern CT and the higher amounts in southwestern CT.

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Snow Forecast

ECMWF Snowfall Forecast Through 8 AM Saturday

ECMWF Snowfall Forecast Through 8 AM Saturday (Click To Enlarge)

 

Snow will develop across Connecticut from west to east Friday afternoon.   Looks like it will taper to flurries toward/after midnight.  Accumulations will range from 1″ - 4″.  Lowest in the northeast corner, highest in the southwest corner of the state.

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For Those Of You Scoring At Home……

Seasonal Snowfall Through EDT March 11th

Seasonal Snowfall Through 2:12 PM EDT March 11th (Click To Enlarge)

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Here We Snow Again!

ECMWF Forecast Snow Amounts Through 7 PM Thursday (Click To Enlarge)

ECMWF Forecast Snow Amounts Through 7 PM Thursday (Click To Enlarge)

The steadier precipitation won’t really get going until sometime after 9 PM or 10 PM tonight, although there will be some dribs & drabs around before that.  In a lot of places it will start as some light rain or mixed with light rain, but should become mostly all snow across southern New England & northern NJ by 1-2 AM.  It will be snowing during the morning commute Thursday.  After that the snow will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast during the rest of the day.  I’m thinking the NWS may be a little light on forecast snow amounts (or am I too heavy)?  I’m thinking the Euro (see image above) is pretty good here on amounts.  The GFS also has significant amounts for many and the NAM is a tad lighter.  Basically, 2″-6″ across CT (higher amounts tending to be toward the south coast, lower amounts tending to be in the far north), most of RI and areas of MA south of Boston.  Mostly 1″-2″ amounts for the rest of MA. The southern half of NJ may see more than 8″.

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Deets on Tonight

High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Snowfall Forecast Through 11 PM, Based On A 10-1 Snow To Liquid Ratio (Click To Enlarge)

High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Snowfall Forecast Through 11 PM, Based On A 10-1 Snow To Liquid Ratio (Click To Enlarge)

Tonight’s Timetable: All snow in New England where precipitation is falling through 7 PM.  By 8-9 PM, mostly sleet across the western half of CT and maybe the Springfield, MA area, too.  By 10:30 PM snow confined to north & east of Worcester, MA.  At that time all of CT, most of RI and western MA will be getting sleet and/or freezing rain, with some plain rain south & east of Hartford, CT.  Bulk of the precipitation is over by 2 AM.  Most snow totals on the order of 1″-3″.

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“Uncle!”

white-flagA message to Mother Nature: I think I speak for the group when I say “we give up”.   We’ve had it.  Whatever it takes, just bring back the warm weather!  The global warming crowd is shivering in their igloos wondering where they went wrong.  They should not have tempted fate by claiming to speak for you!  You have reasserted your superiority over us mere mortals with a spectacular display this winter, and you have certainly got our attention!  Cities are not being inundated by rising oceans due to melting polar ice caps.  Despite Spring being only 18 days away, the northeast and especially New England is buried under a thick mantle of snow and ice (2′-4′ deep in many cases).

Snow Depth Reports

Snow Depth Reports (Click To Enlarge)

The arctic air just keeps on coming down in waves.  But the sun always wins out eventually.  We just hope that as the strengthening sun gradually overtakes these bitter air masses in the weeks to come, that the melting occurs gradually so as to keep flooding problems to a minimum.  Here are some highlights from the Winter of 2014-15:

Snowiest Winter in Boston on record! 99.4″ during December-February and all but 0.3″ of that fell in January & February!

February was the all-time coldest month in Hartford, CT (BDL).  The monthly average temperature was a scant 16.1 degrees.  This was a stunning 13.6 degrees below average and eclipsed the previous coldest month of February 1934, which had an average temperature of 16.5 degrees.

This was the all-time snowiest February on record in Providence, Rhode Island.  They had 31.8″ of snow, which was 23.3″ above normal!

This was the all-time snowiest winter in Worcester, Mass.  They had 101.4″ of snow during December-February!  It was also the all-time coldest and all-time snowiest February there, with an average temperature of 14.2 degrees and 53.4″ of snow!

What’s even more impressive about these snow totals is that hardly any fell during December.  More details about the meteorological winter in review can be found here.

Water Content Of Snowpack

Water Content Of Snowpack (Click To Enlarge)

2″-7″ of new snow accumulated across much of southern New England and Long Island yesterday and last night.  We should see some clearing by this afternoon, but the wind will start to pick up.  Another cold night in store with a lot of single numbers and teens by sunrise Tuesday.  The next system will bring some snow beginning by Tuesday evening/early Tuesday night, but a southwest flow will draw up enough milder air to change that over fairly quickly to mixed precipitation and rain during Tuesday night.  Colder air will follow as we go into Wednesday night, and the question is whether or not the next area of moisture will get in here in the form of snow Wednesday night, or slide out just to our south.

 

 

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Weekend Storm & Cold Update

ECMWF Model (Euro) Snowfall Forecast

ECMWF Model (Euro) Snowfall Forecast Through Sunday Night (Click To Enlarge)

Not going to make any changes to the forecast at this point.   Still some things that could bust snow amounts (that usually goes without saying).  Some of the modeling is suggesting that there could be a lull or lulls in the snow tonight.  Areas of light snow and flurries will get going later this morning into the afternoon, and become a bit steadier as the day goes on.  Many places will have an inch or two of new snow on the ground by this evening.  Things that will affect how much snow we end up with include how long the lulls in the snow are tonight (if they occur), where the low pressure trough tailing behind this storm lines up, and how much snowfall is focused along that trough.  This is related to exactly where the storm tracks as it rapidly deepens offshore.

Any lingering snow in New England/southeastern NY will end from west to east during Sunday, except across parts of northern New England (especially Maine) and maybe Cape Cod, where areas of snow will linger into Sunday night.  Temperatures will fall through the teens during the day Sunday and some places will hit the single numbers before the end of the day.  Strong, gusty wind will push wind chills to -10 to -20 Sunday afternoon.  Lows Sunday night/Monday morning will be below zero across most of the region and it will still be windy.  Wind chills Sunday night will drop to -25 to -35 degrees across southern New England!  This can produce frostbite in 20 minutes.

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Updated Snowfall Forecast For The Weekend

Click To Enlarge

Click To Enlarge

Here is an updated snowfall forecast for the weekend.  You can see by the sharp gradients on this forecast map that if the storm is just a little closer or further away from the coast than currently projected, snowfall amounts where you are could be materially different than what is anticipated at this time (i.e. take this and all snowfall forecasts with a grain of salt).  The rest of the forecast from yesterday stays pretty much the same, except for the Tuesday night/Wednesday storm, which the models are now taking mostly or completely out to sea.  They may or may not try to bring that one back in after they are done handling the weekend situation.  We will look at that more closely as we get closer to it.  Blowing & drifting snow and bitter cold wind chills will be problems Sunday.

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Checklist: Earmuffs, Gloves, Scarf, Roof Rake, Shovel, Wood………

(Not necessarily in that order).

GFS Forecast 1 PM EST Saturday

GFS Forecast 1 PM EST Saturday (Click To Enlarge)

GFS Forecast 7 AM EST Sunday (Click To Enlarge)

GFS Forecast 7 AM EST Sunday (Click To Enlarge)

It’s been quite a winter so far and it looks like it’s going to get worse before it gets better.  We have some scattered areas of snow and flurries around today being kicked off by an approaching arctic front and mid-level trough.  Low pressure will start to take shape over us and deepen over the ocean tonight, but it will be too far away to get us with it’s increasing snow shield.  As a result, we can expect anywhere from a dusting to an inch or two of snow through most of the region by the time the last flurries end this evening/early tonight.  Best chance for the highest amounts would be in some of the northwest hills/Berkshires.  As the low deepens offshore a stiffening northwest wind will develop tonight into Friday.  This wind will pull arctic air into the region tonight, dropping low temperatures into the single numbers in many places as wind chills will drop below zero.  Some shore points will hold close to or just above 10 degrees tonight, and some cold spots (like the Berkshires) will drop below zero on the thermometer.  Friday will be sunny and dry, but not a fun day to be outside.  Highs won’t get out of the teens (single numbers in parts of MA and points north) and wind-chills will be below zero thanks to a northwest wind coming at us at 15-25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph.  This is all just a primer for the weekend, though.

Low pressure (see #2 on the images) will again be moving down from the northwest on Valentine’s Day (Saturday).  Aided and abetted by ample mid-level dynamics (see #1 on the images) this system will explode into a major storm after it crosses the coast and taps the Atlantic moisture.  The $64 question is how much of this moisture will get thrown back on us?  A situation like this can change materially between now and Saturday.  At this time (Thursday morning) it looks like a 3″-6″ type snowfall event for much of the region Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.  (The start time would be before noon Saturday for northwestern areas).  This is only an early estimate though, and likely to change.    There is the potential for much more snow than this – especially across portions of eastern New England.  It will all depend on exactly where the center of this storm is when it starts to explode.  Regardless of what we see for snowfall from that system, as it deepens offshore, a bitter, driving northwest wind will take over across the region later Saturday night and Sunday.  Temperatures Sunday are likely to drop during the day, into/through the teens and single numbers.  Sunday afternoon looks like the most uncomfortable weather we’ve seen in some time, with temperatures within a few degrees of 10 in many spots and a northwest wind at 20-40 mph, with gusts over 50 mph in some cases.  This will produce wind chill factors of -10 to -20 degrees Sunday afternoon!  Frostbite can occur on exposed skin in 30 minutes at -20.

Also – yet another storm system is progged to affect us Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The models suggest at this time that enough milder air will be drawn up with this system so that it will not be all snow everywhere.  Looks like there will be some mixing involved, based on the current track.  Considering the amount of weight on roofs across the region now and a number of roof and building collapses already reported (especially in eastern MA), if we add additional weight via an accumulation of ice or liquid that could be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back for a number of other buildings.  If you have a significant amount of snow on your roof now and a roof rake, today or Saturday would probably be the best times to try to get some of it off, as Friday & Sunday will be bitter, and the amount of snow we get Saturday PM into Sunday AM is still questionable.  If you don’t have a rake though, don’t even think about trying to climb up there.  Definitely a bad move.

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Cold Waves & Snow Threats Will Continue

GFS Model Forecast For 10 PM EST Thursday

GFS Model Forecast For 10 PM EST Thursday (Click To Enlarge)

The upper air pattern that has been established will continue to provide fresh doses of artic air to the northeast and coastal storm development as one deepening trough after another swings down from Canada into the eastern half of the U.S.  Our next chance for snow comes Thursday & Thursday night as a developing surface low slides out to our south & east.  Initially, this system did not look like it would produce much snow for us, and then the models began to trend snowier.  However, the most recent guidance is suggesting that it will get going a little too far away to bring big snow back to the area.  Instead, it looks more like a 1″-3″ type event (some areas less, but maybe 6″ on parts of Cape Cod), beginning Thursday morning in northwestern areas and Thursday P.M. further south & east.  The snow should taper off during Thursday night and be replaced with a stiffening northwest wind as the storm deepens well offshore.  Bitter, arctic air will be with us for Friday & the weekend.  Friday will be windy and many places will not get out of the teens.

A similar scenario looks likely for the weekend, with a coastal storm developing a bit far out, perhaps brushing us with some fringe snow and followed by bitter wind chills Sunday.  Based on the current guidance, it looks like Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritimes may get hit hard by both of these next two coastal storms.  Also please note that slight changes in the positioning of these coastals would mean the difference between flurries/nothing and significant snow for our region, so although the next two do not look like direct hits at this time, modeling will fluctuate during the next few days and both situations bear watching, especially considering the amount of weight already on rooftops across the region.

1:38 PM Note: New European Model run still putting out 6″+ for much of southern New England and 12″+ for much of east, coastal New England & the eastern half of Maine with the weekend system.

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