The Upton, NY National Weather Service office has indicated that a new 24-hour snowfall record was set for the state of Connecticut during the blizzard earlier this year (February 8-9). Ansonia’s 36″ report is the new record. The explanation of why other higher amounts reported were not used can be found here.
HRRR Precipitation Forecast 8 PM EDT
An area of showers moving out of eastern PA may bring some raindrops to the northwestern third of CT and parts of western MA this evening around 7-9 PM. Elsewhere, the best chance for a shower or thundershower will develop later tonight. Low temperatures will remain in the mid-upper 50′s. I wouldn’t be surprised if some areas see some patchy fog by morning. Saturday looks unsettled with showers and areas of rain at times, along with the chance for a thundershower. Highs between 67-72. The precipitation will taper off during Saturday night. Mothers Day look partly cloudy and although most of the day will be rain-free, the chance for a shower does exist (especially around midday), as a cold front moves across the region. Highs will be 65-70. After Sunday it turns cooler.
Radar 2:09 PM EDT
Areas of rain & thundershowers are widespread across CT at 2:20 P.M. The back edge of the activity is lifting northward into Long Island Sound. Most of the rain & thunder should be over in CT by this evening/early tonight as things continue to move to the north. Most of tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 50′s. Warmer weather tomorrow, with highs reaching 75-80 under a mix of sun & clouds (cooler shore points). Some more showers & thunder Friday night & Saturday. Saturday’s highs in the low-mid 70′s. Mothers Day looks partly cloudy with the chance for a shower.
Radar 1:45 PM EDT
Some heavier showers & thundershowers are moving north through portions of southern CT now. Lightning has decreased within this band during the past 30 minutes.
NAM Forecast 2 PM EDT Wednesday
Last month was one of the driest Aprils on record in Bridgeport (1.09″) and BDL only saw 1.67″ of rain – none since April 20th! After a long stretch of dry weather, the upper-level block and high pressure ridge are finally breaking down. A stacked-up low pressure system will drift up from the south bringing some much needed rain to the area beginning Wednesday. In fact, cloudiness will increase tonight, and some drizzle or fog may develop. Lows will hold in the low-mid 50′s. Showers & periods of rain get going Wednesday with high temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
It looks like we will stay in an unsettled pattern through the rest of the week. There will be some showers around Thursday, and there is also the chance for some thunder Wednesday-Thursday. Friday looks partly cloudy and with a little luck we could get through much of the daytime dry. Some more rain or showers come through Friday night into Saturday. There is still a question as to weather the wet weather kicks out to the east by Mother’s Day (Sunday) ala the GFS or some showers linger per the ECMWF. Temperatures will be on the mild side through Saturday (i.e. 60′s & 70′s).
Radar 3:35 PM EDT
Some showers will affect the region this evening and tonight. Some of the showers will be moderate to heavy into the first half of tonight. There is a decent line of thunderstorms approaching Williamsport, PA, with a warning out west of IPT. Some of the modeling brings this line due east and right across our region this evening, although with the warmest air south of us now, I would expect some weakening of this area before it arrives here. Low temps will drop into the 40′s tonight and highs won’t get out of the 50′s Thursday. There will be some lingering clouds and a light shower or two or some drizzle at times Thursday. Steadier rain spreads back in Friday as low pressure moves up from the southwest. Highs will probably stay in the 40′s. in fact, some mixed precipitation is possible in parts of western MA Thursday night into Friday. Things will dry out for the weekend.
The temperature in Bridgeport, CT has reached 81 degrees this hour! That breaks the old record for the date of 79 degrees that was set in 1991. Meanwhile, Houlton, ME is reporting light snow and 35 degrees.
Surface Plots 3 P.M. EDT
Pretty nice out there this afternoon. Meriden, CT is up to 63 degrees at 3 P.M. Still seabreezing at the shore with temps 10-15 degrees cooler, however you may see a brief temperature pop there later after the front passes and winds go N-NW. The short-term trend is going in the other direction, though. Colder air will be flowing in on the northwest breeze tonight. Lows will drop into the 20′s under a clear sky. Saturday will be mostly sunny and a bit cool for our liking as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs 46-51. Saturday night will be partly cloudy with lows between 28-33. As the high moves to the east Sunday, our wind will shift into the south to southwest. This will bring milder air up, although that will probably be modified somewhat by a sea-breeze effect. The temperature of L.I. Sound is about 43 degrees, so we may have trouble getting milder than the 50′s through most of CT Sunday, however 60 degrees is possible if you are far enough inland, or the wind becomes more southwest than south. Sky conditions Sunday will feature varying amounts of cloudiness. There is the slight chance for a shower, but it should be mostly dry. After a trough passes Monday and our wind shifts back around to the northwest, temps will shoot for the 60′s, under a partly cloudy sky.
ECMWF Forecast 2 PM EDT Friday
An area of low pressure will move from the southeastern U.S. coast tonight to off the mid-Atlantic coast, south & east of us Friday. This system still looks like it will keep the bulk of its’ precipitation to our south & east, however it also still looks like it may be close enough to throw a few showers or a bit of light rain into CT Friday morning. The farther south & east you go, the higher the chance for rain tomorrow morning and the more you’re likely to see, however most of the state has at least the chance for a morning shower. Cloudiness will increase tonight with lows in the 30′s. It should be mostly sunny Friday afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-upper 50′s, but a cold front will pass through by early afternoon. A northwest wind will increase behind this front by mid-late afternoon Friday. Lows will drop to 26-31 degrees Friday night under a mostly clear sky.
Saturday should turn out mostly sunny as high pressure builds in. Highs 48-53. A southwest breeze takes over Sunday, pushing highs to between 56-62. We’ll have varying amounts of cloudiness Sunday and there is the chance for a shower. Milder temps should prevail early next week with highs reaching the 60′s.
GFS 500 millibar Forecast 11 PM EDT Friday
It looks like the upper level mean trough position is going to remain in the east much of the time during the next couple of weeks. This means that although we will occasionally have days that see the temperature reach average to slightly above average levels, it will generally remain on the cooler side into mid-month. The average high for today is 55 degrees. The average high rises to 60 degrees on Saturday the 13th. The temperature map this afternoon looks like something out of February. Many towns have struggled into the low 40′s. There are numerous 30′s in the hills, and Norfolk, CT (1300 feet elevation) is just 32 degrees as of 3:20 P.M. There have also been some flurries & snow showers – mainly across the Berkshires.
Lows will drop back into the 20-25 degree range tonight under a partly cloudy sky. Wednesday will be similar to today, with a mix of sun & clouds, breezy/windy conditions, and temps not getting out of the 40′s (30′s again for the northern hills). It looks like the temperature will moderate to near seasonable levels Thursday as highs reach 50-55 under a mostly sunny sky.