GFS Forecast 1 AM EST Sunday
Any areas of snow across CT will taper to a couple flurries during the rest of this afternoon from northwest to southeast. Many locations have reported between 1″-3″ today and any additional accumulation should be less than an inch. Black ice will form this evening and tonight as temperatures drop. Lows by morning fall to 17-23 degrees.
Wednesday-Friday look dry & cold. Highs 29-34 tomorrow and Friday, with temps holding in the 20′s Thursday, except 30 along the shoreline.
Although it’s still 4-5 days out and there is time for things to change, model guidance is depicting some messy weather this weekend. The current scenario has snow developing Saturday afternoon or evening, with accumulating snow Saturday night, which may or may not mix with or change to other precipitation types, and precipitation lingering into at least part of Sunday. Too early to forecast snow amounts or other specifics since this storm doesn’t even exist yet, but keep an eye on it if you have to travel over the weekend.
Winter Weather Advisory Tonight/Monday
The scenario for tonight & Monday hasn’t changed over the past few days. It still looks like moisture working in from the southwest will run into cold air associated with the high pressure system over the northeast, resulting in snow tonight, followed by sleet & freezing rain, and in many parts of CT, a transition to rain before it tapers off Monday afternoon. Some mixed precipitation could linger in parts of northwestern CT and MA into early Monday afternoon. I’m thinking snow amounts will be between a coating and an inch or two, with perhaps 2″ or 3″ in the northwest hills before the changeover. (Hmmm….that has a familiar ring to it. Hopefully this forecast will work out better than Friday night’s epic fail, although I imagine most of us would happy with the same result). Highs today probably no better that 30-35 with thickening clouds. Lows in the 20′s tonight. Highs in the mid 30′s-low 40′s Monday afternoon (maybe some stubborn low 30′s in the northwest corner). The NWS has put up a Winter Weather Advisory for all areas shaded in purple above. It begins at 6 PM in southern CT, and 11 PM to the north.
NAM Forecast 1 AM EST Saturday
The forecast is still pretty much on track from yesterday. A few, scattered light showers this afternoon will give way to more widespread showers and areas of rain this evening into tonight, with the rain changing to wet snow (and some sleet) from northwest to southeast tonight. The changeover will reach the northwest hills by this evening/early tonight, and I’m thinking Hartford will start changing to wet snow around 12:00-1:00 A.M. The precipitation will end as some flurries Saturday morning. By then a number of places around CT will probably have between a dusting and an inch or two of wet snow on the ground. I’m thinking the northwest hills and western MA will be looking at 2″-5″, with maybe a couple 5″-6″ amounts in the Berkshires. There is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Litchfield County in CT and Berkshire, Hampshire & Franklin Counties in MA from this evening into early Saturday morning. The threat of freezing rain in the northwest hills looks lower than it did yesterday. Should be mostly wet snow and a little sleet after the change. Low temperatures by Saturday morning will be 29-35 in CT (highest along the shore), a bit colder in MA.
After any flurries end Saturday morning, a clearing trend will develop. Highs only 36-41 inland, low 40′s coast. Sunday is partly cloudy with highs in the 30′s. It still looks like some snow and mixed precipitation will develop Sunday night and change to rain Monday.
NAM Forecast 4 AM EST Saturday
A Dense Fog Advisory continues tonight for all but Litchfield & Berkshire Counties, although visibilities have actually been improving a bit over the last hour or two. There will be some drizzle, showers, and areas of rain around at times tonight into Friday. Temps will be in the 40′s to around 50 tonight, then drop through the 40′s Friday after a cold front passes in the morning. Readings could drop into the 30′s during the day north & west of Hartford, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a little sleet mixed in across the northwest hills Friday afternoon. Speaking of the northwest hills, there could be an extended period of mixed precipitation (i.e. wet snow, sleet, freezing rain) in the northwest hills and western MA Friday evening and night.
Looking at temperature forecasts aloft, Friday evening, it’s very borderline, so forecasting how much wet snow falls vs. freezing rain or sleet is not easy. It looks like there is the potential for anywhere from a coating to a couple inches of wet snow in the Litchfield hills and up to 3″-6″ in the Berkshires by Saturday morning, however if we keep the above-freezing layer aloft long enough, the snow amounts will be lower, but problems with ice potentially higher. From Hartford south & east, I’m thinking a shorter period of wet snow/sleet at the end of the precipitation, with some places maybe getting a coating and others no real accumulation. Lows will fall to 28-35 by Saturday morning, and there will likely be some icy patches from freezing puddles, in addition to any snow that sticks or freezing rain that accretes, so driving Friday night/early Saturday morning could be a bit dicey.
Could see some flurries linger into Saturday morning, then a clearing trend. Dry & cold most of the weekend, then some more snow/mix Sunday night, changing to rain by Monday.
Visible Satellite 2:02 P.M.
Drier air is punching through a little this afternoon, allowing for a bit of partial clearing in parts of CT. I think this trend will reverse itself tonight as low clouds and fog fill back in. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little, spotty freezing drizzle or freezing fog develop late tonight. If this happens there could be a couple of icy spots around later tonight/early Tuesday. After some morning fog Tuesday, we will see considerable cloudiness and maybe a little bit of sun. Highs will be in the 40′s. Wednesday looks partly sunny with highs 45-50.
NOAA has confirmed that this was the sixth least active hurricane season (ended yesterday) since 1950 in the Atlantic Basin. We had the fewest hurricanes since 1982 and no major hurricanes this season. So, if you’ve been losing sleep worrying that the weather is getting crazier and more severe every year (as opposed to the media coverage), hopefully you can rest easier. At least until next Hurricane season begins on June 1, 2014. Here’s the article.
Radar 6:19 AM EST
Areas of freezing rain and freezing drizzle are making for hazardous travel in many parts of CT early this morning. A number of accidents have occurred due to the icy conditions. It seems to be worst from Hartford, south & east where most of the precipitation has fallen and in the form of freezing rain. Further north & west from parts of Litchfield County up into western MA, the precipitation has been lighter and more frozen in nature (i.e. sleet and/or snow). The National Weather Service has a Freezing Rain Advisory out for Hartford, Tolland & Windham Counties in Ct and western MA, east of Berkshire County until 9 AM. There are some dangerous conditions however, south & east of Hartford as well. Conditions will improve later this morning as the temperature rises above freezing. It will become partly sunny later, with highs this afternoon in the low-mid 40′s.
6:50 AM Update: Freezing Rain Advisory extended to interior New Haven, Middlesex & New London Counties until 9 AM.
7:15 AM Update: NWS Extends Freezing Rain Advisory until 11:00 AM for Hartford, Tolland & Windham Couties and adjacent areas of western AM & northwestern Providence County, RI.
8:57 AM Update: Freezing Rain Advisory for interior New Haven, Middlesex & New London Counties extended until 11:00 A.M.
Infrared Sat 5:02 PM EST
Our weather will turn progressively colder this weekend thanks to 2 cold fronts. The first is moving across western NY and northwestern PA this evening. It should pass across CT between approximately 11 PM-1 AM tonight. Until then, we’ll see varying amounts of cloudiness and the chance for a shower later. After the front passes, we’ll see a clearing trend overnight. A northwest breeze will develop and lows will drop into the 30′s inland to around 40 along the shoreline. Saturday will be mostly sunny and a bit breezy, with highs in the 40′s – and that will be the warmer of the 2 weekend days! An Arctic cold front, currently moving through the northern Plains will arrive here Saturday night. There could be a flurry with the front, otherwise it will be partly cloudy, windy & cold with lows between 18-24. The coldest air of the season so far takes over Sunday. Highs will only reach 27-35 (highest along the coast), however with northwesterlies at 15-25 mph & gusts over 30 mph, wind-chills will be in the teens during the day! Monday looks sunny & cold, with highs in the low-mid 30′s and less wind.
Cloudiness will tend to increase Tuesday and there could be some flurries or a bit of light snow around by later in the day. A developing area of low pressure will move up the east coast Tuesday night and Wednesday. Based on current modeling, it appears that we would see some snow changing to rain here Tuesday night into Wednesday. If this system remains close enough to the coast to produce heavy precipitation, it would likely fall as mostly rain across most of the state Wednesday based on today’s latest numbers. However if it were to track a little farther east, the precipitation would be a bit lighter, but the snow would tend to hang on longer. Too far out to make a definitive call on this today.
High pressure centered near the New England/Quebec border will keep us dry & chilly through Thursday. There is a patch of high clouds drifting in from the west that may help to keep most of CT in the 20′s tonight, however some upper teens can be anticipated – especially if we stay clear enough. Looks like a mix of sun & clouds Thursday. Temps remain below average, with highs in the low-mid 40′s. Clouds will increase Thursday night, helping to keep lows in the 30′s. We will see a few showers around Friday and Friday night. Despite this, temps will moderate a bit, with highs Friday reaching 47-52.
The Weekend: back to a mix of sun & clouds Saturday, with highs in the 40′s. The big change ahead comes in with an Arctic cold front Sunday morning. The front will probably be accompanied by some flurries and maybe a few squalls. It will become quite windy Sunday and we’ll be lucky to get highs into the low 30′s.
Radar 12:36 P.M.
An area of thunderstorms currently in NJ is likely to affect portions of CT this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM for Litchfield & Berkshire Counties. The Storm Prediction Center indicates there is a 60% chance that a watch will also be issued for much of New England later. Damaging wind and hail may occur with some of these storms. It will be unsettled tonight, although the intensity of any remaining storms should wane. A fall-like airmass is in for the end of the week/weekend. Lows in the 40′s Friday night!